tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-45048951755032835182024-02-07T09:46:51.416-08:00a-mak15 on Fantasy<b>a-mak15</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/10477029375774982659noreply@blogger.comBlogger40125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4504895175503283518.post-42793510051165519982012-03-04T22:39:00.000-08:002012-03-04T22:40:16.027-08:00<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipcxNp9cVP1P03DuV-ICY1th7Ow1uD-A-y_yaUjCQynOZQ1dx3tUCSxfr9R5GrsPZjpybLRZO6UpVeB5sZAEUkW44y8Rac9Bw1BFmcZ3iqGKXPxNzR0OinrOt9AGeMgunRdnJDSgw6LBI/s1600/goalie+sched+week+21.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 254px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipcxNp9cVP1P03DuV-ICY1th7Ow1uD-A-y_yaUjCQynOZQ1dx3tUCSxfr9R5GrsPZjpybLRZO6UpVeB5sZAEUkW44y8Rac9Bw1BFmcZ3iqGKXPxNzR0OinrOt9AGeMgunRdnJDSgw6LBI/s400/goalie+sched+week+21.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5716299152899112402" /></a><b>a-mak15</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/10477029375774982659noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4504895175503283518.post-51952298849568514162012-03-04T22:32:00.000-08:002012-03-04T22:35:25.179-08:00<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9AhNmk6C8u8JHd-Set5GnMx0WV5cdt911VaM2Bpy5IaSCnQhkV5kMeRSjUlCn4Y1ZRs1uDFIAhF1fp1kycyUmhjCIiQlP5jB6uVCy7MK7HCYC5aB-0EkCRKDBv8Hh2BO4d-n_dwQ1uag/s1600/goalie+sched+week+21.jpg"><img style="display:block; 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cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 260px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEif8iGxQ3nz2gfj6ludDaRunABsmSMo73BgUTHlHC8VZU6XELrwswKTL2tDKclcnJgsm_C4v09h1V_J50V8JSgu0B3D20qzwprxgABQsMGSGoW9dFAbN_XVt1YXZo2fRx9Bt7WSa8bnnJo/s400/goalie+sched+week+5.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5673191637147195042" /></a><b>a-mak15</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/10477029375774982659noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4504895175503283518.post-86443258254620160052011-11-02T16:35:00.001-07:002011-11-02T16:35:31.810-07:00<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZy_5StURhyphenhyphenW7jKY1zePJHMqctfhhlMBMEEzToLeTtwqXmrmvZNMuEUJcEFFJlcb0XhG_28mHwtnneV20spYvjXhxWJYkNM4mTIgcrEcSffjqLLO_ZU8ubaLW6VOE_Kx5EUXbpnvrSgLo/s1600/goalie+sched+week+4.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 260px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZy_5StURhyphenhyphenW7jKY1zePJHMqctfhhlMBMEEzToLeTtwqXmrmvZNMuEUJcEFFJlcb0XhG_28mHwtnneV20spYvjXhxWJYkNM4mTIgcrEcSffjqLLO_ZU8ubaLW6VOE_Kx5EUXbpnvrSgLo/s400/goalie+sched+week+4.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5670546231491831266" /></a><b>a-mak15</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/10477029375774982659noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4504895175503283518.post-14804728897831044532011-11-02T16:20:00.001-07:002011-11-02T16:20:45.399-07:00<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDf5nnCDnidiv8jRuGsPOpLBHfITVAnIAFinMAZ2w5MoXnEQFu0LYJi_lQ5HiPFwA4cLUdFSMY7V4UCxnTxdqEy6s_y2MBB0817gdUOnuX0Qu9BIo4YexW88Xc6yXkgKUAC0tmHMIAqfQ/s1600/goalie+sched+week+4.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 260px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDf5nnCDnidiv8jRuGsPOpLBHfITVAnIAFinMAZ2w5MoXnEQFu0LYJi_lQ5HiPFwA4cLUdFSMY7V4UCxnTxdqEy6s_y2MBB0817gdUOnuX0Qu9BIo4YexW88Xc6yXkgKUAC0tmHMIAqfQ/s400/goalie+sched+week+4.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5670542417708476610" /></a><b>a-mak15</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/10477029375774982659noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4504895175503283518.post-37399428943977478412011-10-27T14:13:00.000-07:002011-10-27T14:25:03.812-07:00<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinCi6LV6bP3LP5C_66p9hEhspKw3sfTEUNbyw2SzrFdtHM1lKE0LOyTobXVLuqg2gfsfao_2BRiPquTwMDbi6dRxxasRe0WGuILP9TBwN_cvykJr9Zu11bDzi9R-BkCs3IMCHBv1cPlFE/s1600/goalie+sched+week+3.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 260px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinCi6LV6bP3LP5C_66p9hEhspKw3sfTEUNbyw2SzrFdtHM1lKE0LOyTobXVLuqg2gfsfao_2BRiPquTwMDbi6dRxxasRe0WGuILP9TBwN_cvykJr9Zu11bDzi9R-BkCs3IMCHBv1cPlFE/s400/goalie+sched+week+3.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5668286067520066594" /></a><b>a-mak15</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/10477029375774982659noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4504895175503283518.post-84337947538279667192011-10-20T18:33:00.000-07:002011-10-20T18:34:42.971-07:00<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPwDsHzKw5jv2llmMI2S6am5AmO9nGdhGwCIc7nQdLeIpJqcnReY8H2xm-TljZHF-zlXCko57Z6HMQViLwM7k7y9u9qpfTYcq3deZDfeZTzY58V1YlSizhvKrsIA415a8buw-esjjGNJI/s1600/goalie+sched+week+2.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 260px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPwDsHzKw5jv2llmMI2S6am5AmO9nGdhGwCIc7nQdLeIpJqcnReY8H2xm-TljZHF-zlXCko57Z6HMQViLwM7k7y9u9qpfTYcq3deZDfeZTzY58V1YlSizhvKrsIA415a8buw-esjjGNJI/s400/goalie+sched+week+2.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5665752796293680130" /></a><b>a-mak15</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/10477029375774982659noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4504895175503283518.post-80481094088298393122011-10-14T17:47:00.000-07:002011-10-14T17:48:13.317-07:00<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipGzzFsnZVb-I5sGgKB0RHVnE7YpkwHAR3lFBJmh9ldCM6cybQqn6EtkfnTvVcDO2RwfsIBT7iHcit6XcKiji0pX2GZUPFHJWx8Oem9S_VoiT6zUHJwymHh1KWb9rvfHmnQWZ6Cf0J7vI/s1600/goalie+sched.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 254px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipGzzFsnZVb-I5sGgKB0RHVnE7YpkwHAR3lFBJmh9ldCM6cybQqn6EtkfnTvVcDO2RwfsIBT7iHcit6XcKiji0pX2GZUPFHJWx8Oem9S_VoiT6zUHJwymHh1KWb9rvfHmnQWZ6Cf0J7vI/s400/goalie+sched.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5663514305662829426" /></a><b>a-mak15</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/10477029375774982659noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4504895175503283518.post-84900063833265453002011-10-14T17:43:00.000-07:002011-10-14T17:46:32.364-07:00<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijlj0uk41NF86fhzGaG4zjZabkaC7tPemHxqZ9CsVlJnOpxSFBsaG_qmz-YXigeCYn2ArJ-QjCnkZWMCYLebZysMsbfhARUUml-zFA8K79TY1mvBaEV3dXkpJtONctL97Xt9Hb4GArLVk/s1600/goalie+sched.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 203px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijlj0uk41NF86fhzGaG4zjZabkaC7tPemHxqZ9CsVlJnOpxSFBsaG_qmz-YXigeCYn2ArJ-QjCnkZWMCYLebZysMsbfhARUUml-zFA8K79TY1mvBaEV3dXkpJtONctL97Xt9Hb4GArLVk/s320/goalie+sched.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5663513751681535970" /></a><b>a-mak15</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/10477029375774982659noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4504895175503283518.post-88162183237882472812010-04-15T15:59:00.000-07:002010-04-16T00:41:12.636-07:00Rule the Third: Know When to Fold Them<p>“I’m what the world considers to be a phenomenally successful man, and I’ve failed much more than I’ve succeeded.” The Stranger, Sports Night (2000)<br /><br />Failure is a four letter word in sports, both real and fantasy. But most teams fail when a championship is the goal. Many of your trades, you’ll get the bad end. Lots of your waiver or free agent pick-ups will be the wrong move. Even a successful campaign is often made of little failures. It’s one of the reasons I like baseball actually; getting on base just 40% of the time is considered really good.<br /><br />Some people will disagree with me, but being able to accept failure, especially little ones, is crucial to winning. Failure is not an option, they’ll say! <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0iTpYZEpK8">Failure is ALWAYS an option</a>; failure is a great option, in fact. Don’t listen to Tiger Woods.<br /><br />The worst move I probably made in the 2008 fantasy baseball season was not admitting failure. I refused to drop Jeff Francoeur. I was convinced he was going to turn it around. I watched as people picked up seeming one hit wonders who turned into all-stars in Carlos Quentin and Cliff Lee.<br /><br />I did well that year. I drafted Edinson Volquez and Evan Longoria late. I picked up Nate McLouth. But I think I could have won had I admitted that I struck out on Francoeur ... as he did, so so many times.<br /><br />We go into each season thinking that we’ve evaluated each player perfectly. And we fight the notion that we’ve made a mistake and ultimately shoot ourselves in the foot. On the flip side, sometimes a player we draft gets off to a hot start. And we try to hold said player until every ounce of value has been extracted. Think Chad Billingsley or Johnny Cueto last year. It’s important not to get married to your preseason projections. Besides injury, there’s also luck, legitimate improvement, and legitimate decline. And a lucky HR and a good one tally up in the cat all the same.<br /><br />So how do you avoid this? The main way is to look at what is actually going on right now. Also, how and why. Not getting married to your preseason projections is all about seeing what’s actually happening in front of your face. That means watching baseball, reading about baseball, and digging through the box scores. By updating your information with new information, you’re pulling your projections closer to the truth.<br /><br />And of course, make moves. I’ve seen a draft and leave team win once, and it was in a H2H 20 team basketball league where almost all of the talent was taken in the draft and then that team got lucky in the playoffs.<br /><br />I say always try. Always be Bellichikian. Go for it on 4th and 2.<br /><br />-Trigga Play</p><b>a-mak15</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/10477029375774982659noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4504895175503283518.post-80095229590828466992010-03-25T19:45:00.000-07:002010-03-25T19:52:42.417-07:00Rule the Second: Know Your Odds<br>Since I started on a poker theme, I might as well continue here.<br /><br />In poker, you need to know your pot odds; you need to know what chances you have of succeeding with the hand you have. You need to know all the facts and figures to make the best decisions. Rule #1 was about knowing your market; rule #2 is about knowing the product and PROPERLY evaluating risk.<br /><br />I know this isn’t revolutionary stuff. So let’s get down to some specifics in how to play this out. To start off, ask yourself this question. If "future you" were to appear before you today and say, you have four leagues that you’re about to draft, and I’ll give you two options. Option one, you come in 2nd through 6th in all your leagues. Or, in option two, you come in 1st in one league and dead last in all your other leagues. These are extremes, but knowing the answer to this or at least which side of the spectrum you lean to, is how you should start to evaluate risk.<br /><br />I’m the second guy in this scenario. And luckily for you, a-mak’s more along the lines of the first, so if you lean that way, you have a solid option for advice right here on this blog. I like a little more risk in my risk analysis. Why? Because I want to win. There is a difference between 2nd and 12th, but it’s not as big a difference as between 1st and 2nd for me (when there’s no money involved). And when it comes to how I evaluate the market, that’s the key for me. When there’s not a significant cost of entry into any of your leagues (either monetarily or otherwise), and there’s not much difference between 2nd and last, high risk strategy is some of the best to take.<br /><br />Put it this way. In the NCAA tournament, most years, you pick someone like Cornell or Northern Iowa to do how they’ve done, and you’ll lose. But if you’re entering a huge contest like ESPN or Y!, selecting something crazy like that gives you a huge advantage if it turns out right. It’s a way of separating yourself from the crowd. The one in every seven years that it does happen, you don’t have to get as many of the first day games because you’re one of the few people who don’t have Villanova and Kansas in your final four.<br /><br />In your office pool, you never pick those types of games because the odds don’t make any sense. Everyone’s got Kansas in the final four, so just putting Ohio State in there (a more likely conclusion) would already give you that leg up. There would be no need to take a bigger risk.<br /><br />I tend to act the same way when it comes to drafting. A lot of people will advise their readers to lower their risk; take the numbers that you know (as much as one can) will pan out. Get value here by taking someone at an unnecessarily discounted price. Never reach. Don’t pay for career years, don’t pay for saves, etc. All these strategies are about reducing risk, and if you have heartburn, it’s probably the way to go. But smartly attacking risk can pay off as well.<br /><br />Just a few quick specifics that I like to do. I like to draft players on their “last chance.” Basically the fantasy community is about to give up on them despite their talent and despite their positioning due to 2 or 3 years of not living up to expectations. Sometimes they get discounted below what they’re actually providing because everyone has been expecting them to provide so much more that they’re frustrated. Two guys I like this year in that vein are Stephen Drew and Alex Gordon. Drew is fairly cheap, and Gordon’s injury has made him waiver worthy in a lot of leagues, but I’d keep my eye on him.<br /><br />Another type is people coming off injury or otherwise shortened seasons. I love Carlos Gonzalez here. It’s a small sample size, but he has pedigree, he has results, and he has peripherals. He’s one of the main guys where I’ve gone against my “diversify your portfolio” decree for 2010.<br /><br />I tend to fill up my squads with about a third of these guys. These guys who don’t have a track record of success, or they do, but they’ve stumbled for a year. In the same way that I don’t have zero #1 seeds making the final four, I don’t take all of these guys in a draft. It is still a bit about balance. Even if you lean one way or another on the risk spectrum scale.<br /><br />-Trigga Play<b>a-mak15</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/10477029375774982659noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4504895175503283518.post-54469766006714927552010-03-21T02:54:00.000-07:002010-03-21T05:29:41.068-07:00I liked him a lot better on Florida<br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFxqzt7tnp7MHPayMqDo1jXbGaaz-SA_KUjglv74-oH2VUF_SWQz1BoXZGISG2_gh8NQgE2-FkAQUE1II8P6Sc86o-ehHMX3hGxcnwX_frNsDDNpA96UsMvZe0bRpU5nkmhBOZ_CskIVM/s1600-h/bouwmeester+toskala.jpg"><img style="MARGIN: 0px 0px 10px 10px; WIDTH: 237px; FLOAT: right; HEIGHT: 320px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5451024309725865474" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFxqzt7tnp7MHPayMqDo1jXbGaaz-SA_KUjglv74-oH2VUF_SWQz1BoXZGISG2_gh8NQgE2-FkAQUE1II8P6Sc86o-ehHMX3hGxcnwX_frNsDDNpA96UsMvZe0bRpU5nkmhBOZ_CskIVM/s320/bouwmeester+toskala.jpg" /></a> <span style="font-family:arial;">You know who I'd like to clash with? <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/players/3103">Jay Bouwmeeter</a>. </span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:Arial;">Mano a mano. Bare-knuckle style. </span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:Arial;">Sure he's got 60 or so pounds on me - and several inches, too - but with my immense amount of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hulk_(comics)">pint-up rage</a> and his general ineptitude, foreseeing me savagely Brock Hammer Fisting this punk's face in and knocking him into oblivion suddenly becomes a not so unlikely scenario. <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_en5ris-jko">Then I'll land 15 more shots when he's out cold</a>. </span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:Arial;">Bouwmeester has performed underwhelmingly coming into the season as a consensus fifth-round pick. I landed him in the sixth round at pick 79 (R6 P4) in the <a href="http://hockey.fantasysports.yahoo.com/hockey/209424">Roto Arcade Blog League</a> and felt he was tremendous value there. On a per-game scale, he's been outperformed by every pick in that round (Booth, Quick, Hiller, Stastny, Havlat, Burrows, Horton, Kunitz, Chris Mason, Roy, Scott Niedermayer, Bryzgalov, Selanne -- hell, even Boyes and he's endured the most disappointing season of his career). </span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:Arial;">He was drafted to anchor my blue line, just as he was acquired by Calgary to anchor theirs. I finished the draft with a very capable defense corps (Bouwmeester, Bieksa, McCabe, Jovanovski, Visnovsky). Alongside Dion Phaneuf, I had him for a 17-30-47-80-170 line; an exceptional tier 2 line for a defenseman. If you extrapolate his current numbers through 71 games, though, you get a putrid 3-26-29-54-133 stat line. That takes a backseat to Erik Johnson, Stephane Robidas, Ian White and James Wisniewski (James Wisniewski!) - all of whom were taken in the 10th round or later. </span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:Arial;">From 2005 through 2009 on the Florida Panthers, Bouwmeester was shockingly consistent. He averaged 12 goals and 29 assists for 41 points, 72 penalty minutes and 182 shots on goal, all while not missing a single game. </span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:Arial;">So what went wrong? Two factors contributed to his massively sub-standard 2009-2010 campaign. One, he signed a lucrative five-year contract averaging $6.6 million US annually. With that incentive pocketed entering the season he lost his motivation. Second, he was moved from a rebuilding team battling for the eighth seed in the East each season to a contending Western Conference powerhouse who were expected to duke it out with rivals Vancouver for the top spot in the Northwest. That's a lot of responsibility to shoulder in your first year. Though <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/players/2017/career;_ylt=AjLfC3n20u7FGnJdcB3DgM5ivLYF">Miikka Kiprusoff</a> has played magically comparable to his stellar 2005-2006 season - while forcing me to eat crow - the Flames <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/standings">only remain in contention for the final seed in the West</a>. </span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:Arial;">So what do I think about his prospects going into 2010-2011 drafts? He's going to be undervalued. Probably going in the seventh or eighth round (similar to the dropoff Phaneuf experienced after a lackluster year last season) so he'll be affordable. For that price I'm definitely buying. That's a bargain. Still only 26 and loaded with a cannon of a shot, I fully expect Bouwmeester to rebound next year. Perhaps he'll never live up to that 55-point potential but to get a serviceable D1 in the eighth would be a steal. </span><br /><span style="font-family:Arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family:Arial;">Back to the Roto Arcade Blog League. We're down to 10 or 11 games remaining on the slate and, as it stands, he's entirely relievable. I claimed top spot this morning but it's the arduous Battle of the Streamers. The top 5 teams are all very much in this thing (and, as I proved in <a href="http://archive.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pmlb/2009/5952">The Roto Arcade Pro-Am</a> with my 15.5 points gained in the final two days of play capturing the title, anything can happen in roto. I've once lost a league because a guy streamed a pitcher on the last day; I didn't, and he made a jump in a pitching category). </span><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiw_X-1P7lnD9gkGIZF1nPaxzjanVripKQGzAvFuRBoD-Vk1Apb-M3Pzu5BaOKrjoEGAkKjFvRZrc5Jysm1wobvUiu3mp0-v8b0c6FIIpdRgrmGyRQ2qx74DZfXBflcCH799MvSB_eOqAk/s1600-h/bouwmeester+bust.jpg"><img style="MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 400px; FLOAT: left; HEIGHT: 250px; CURSOR: hand" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5451060072933828402" border="0" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiw_X-1P7lnD9gkGIZF1nPaxzjanVripKQGzAvFuRBoD-Vk1Apb-M3Pzu5BaOKrjoEGAkKjFvRZrc5Jysm1wobvUiu3mp0-v8b0c6FIIpdRgrmGyRQ2qx74DZfXBflcCH799MvSB_eOqAk/s400/bouwmeester+bust.jpg" /></a><br /><span style="font-family:Arial;">Bouwmeester has one point in his last nine games and two in his last 13. In his past 13 games, he's a -10. Over the past month, his anemic 0 goal/1 assist/minus-7/4 PIM/1 PP/11 SOG line is forgettable. I can get better production via the wire and streaming. </span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:Arial;">Bieksa is another droppable option. But I'm looking at the schedule and the Canucks play back-to-back games on the 23rd and 24th against Edmonton and Anaheim, respectively. I need PIM and the Canucks rank fifth in PIM, the Anaheim Ducks fourth and the Edmonton Oilers 12th, which means I'm in pretty good shape to watch Bieksa tussle with a goon. </span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:Arial;">Can JB pull it together during the final 10 games when I need him the most? In terms of defensemen he's one of my favorite. Don't let 2009 be the year where you go from G.O.A.T. to goat, Bouwmeester.</span><br /><br /><span style="font-family:Arial;"></span><b>a-mak15</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/10477029375774982659noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4504895175503283518.post-46397020579112959292010-03-16T12:02:00.000-07:002010-03-16T16:02:13.067-07:00Meticulously constructing a flawless draft strategy<br />It's what I've been doing for the last several hours (three and a half and counting). I generally reserve four to seven hours, seclude myself in an enclosed space (not encouraged if you're a claustrophobe), and tackle each of my drafts with a seamless thoroughness that would impress even <a href="http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/8265">the finest of linebackers</a>.<br /><br />This draft was different. And so you adapt.<br /><br />I always keep a pad of paper around. A pad and a pen. I've tried making notes on my Sony laptop and the results were epically disastrous. Not encouraged.<br /><br />First, I jot down the settings. You want to know your settings inside and out and play within them to your advantage. I think the most important thing to note is the number of teams in your league. You base your draft strategy entirely around this.<br /><br />In a holds league, holds carry the same significance as saves. In NL leagues, you bite the bullet and jump the gun on established and capable closers.<br /><br />The second step depends on if your draft order is determined prior to the draft or randomly decided 30 minutes before.<br /><br />If it is predetermined and you know you're drafting at 7., write down all your picks. You'll have a rough idea of how the first few rounds are going to play out so go through the available players page and list all the guys who will presumably be unclaimed for each round. Contingency plans are encouraged. I list three or four guys at each tier, in order. To play it safe I give myself a 5-10 pick opening (like if you wanted to make a reach at that pick). Also you'll have the luxury of finding complementary pairings. Longoria and Crawford at the turn, for example.<br /><br />If your draft randomly determines the order, write down each round as tiers. 1-12, 13-24, 25-36 ... then list all the hypothetical situations which intrigue you. You'll go into the draft with a vague sense of what you're going to accomplish. A step ahead of those who don't consider the endless outcomes of each round going into the draft.<br /><br />Create a: Sleepers, Speculation and Under-ranked table. Go through the entire player pool at least twice filling out each heading. Mark down the players' O-Rank.<br /><br />I also manually create a table featuring <em>every pick of the draft</em> highlighting where the turns of each rounds are (or, where "snaking" occurs). I number the picks. The exercise is a strong visual standout.<br /><br />I also stick to a strict plan. If I've got down that I'll start my pitcher run in the ninth because there's good value in that round, that's how I'll go about things. If I've got my sights set on taking a catcher in the 14th, that's where I'll target them. Experts say you <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/blog/roto_arcade/post/Tip-Drill-Seven-nuggets-sauce-not-included?urn=fantasy,144684&cp=5">shouldn't get married to a draft plan</a>. I find that if I break away from a plan early - like drafting Mauer in the second - it throws my rhythm off and compromises my strategy. Playing it by ear, I'm not a fan.<br /><br />Then construct a list of player injuries and keep notes.<br /><br />If you're unclear about an injury or a player's status, search three or four alternative resources.<br /><br />Going through the player pool, find where to extract positional value.<br /><br />That's all I've got for now. Back to Hour Four of this endless cram session. Here's where the unpleasantness commences. Staying highly caffeinated: encouraged (one Red Bull, two sodas in).<b>a-mak15</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/10477029375774982659noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4504895175503283518.post-11571574947054461582010-03-16T11:36:00.000-07:002010-03-16T13:19:17.334-07:00As promised, introducing: Commenter Trigga Play<br />Who am I?<br /><br /><a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/simmons">I don't have a particular fascination with 80's movies</a>.<br /><br />I don’t have an unhealthy obsession with <a href="http://search.espn.go.com/matthew-berry/">Anne Hathaway</a> or <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/top/expertsarchive?author=Brad+Evans">bacon</a>.<br /><br />I don’t write <a href="http://sports.yahoo.com/top/expertsarchive?author=Andy+Behrens">teen sex comedies</a>.<br /><br />I’m not severely <a href="http://mdsfantasy.blogspot.com/">convinced of my own greatness</a>.<br /><br />And I certainly don’t have several degrees in <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/">statistics</a>.<br /><br />So I ask myself, other than wanting to write, what do I have to offer? I like to think that what I might offer that departs from some of these sources is a little bit of everything. I know a little bit about sports. I know a little bit about poker. I know a little bit about investing. I know a little bit about philosophy. I’m a little things guy. I’ll probably never be a great slugger or flamethrower.<br /><br />So you won't find lots of charts here. Or rankings, or pop culture references. And unless people really want to hear about The World, Time Indefinite, and/or Two for the Road, you probably won’t be hearing about my favorite movies.<br /><br />You’ll find some strategy, some musings, and some predictions is all. And writing with amak means that you’ll definitely find some strong disagreements because we couldn’t be further from each other in terms of strategy.<br /><br />To kick things off, I’m going to write up a little bit on my own personal rules for fantasy sports. And as I think of other important aspects to me, I’ll continue to detail those. But here’s the first of three that are the foundation of pretty much how I run everything.<br /><br />These aren’t rules like wait on a catcher or draft 2 RBs in your first 3 rounds. They can’t simply be followed; they require input.<br /><br />The first and foremost rule in every sport is know your table. Pitchers catalog years of hitting trends before they ever take the mound. Quarterbacks watch weeks of tape before squaring off with a defense. And professional poker players play thousands of hands in order to get the feel for hands and opponents, to turn statistics and strategy into <a href="http://www.gladwell.com/blink/index.html">instinct</a>.<br /><br />Why does every professional do this? Why should you go into an interview knowing the interviewer and the company? Why do we research products before we buy them? It’s obvious, but you’d be surprised how many people don’t do this. I mean not even in the slightest. Not even clicking the person’s profile to see whether or not abandoning leagues is a habit of theirs.<br /><br />The more you know about your opponents the better. Get them talking on the message boards, in the draft. Send them e-mails detailing your opinions real or fake. Read their blogs. Doesn’t matter, get them talking. This is how you find value. Not by looking at mockdraftcentral.com. You have to know the market you're in to know what’s overpriced and what isn’t. Think about people’s predilections and what they might mean. One Brewers fan might be willing to overpay for any Brewer while the next might overcompensate and not fairly evaluate any of them.<br /><br />As NBC has taught us, the more you know, right? Time to look around the table with Spring about to be on our doorsteps. Do you know what the man to your left does with low pocket pairs? Does the woman across from you chase straights or flushes? Does your rival never even call under the gun?<br /><br />And remember, no matter what he says; Gucci doesn’t love you.<br /><br />(Ok, so there will be the occasional pop culture reference)<br /><br />-Trigga Play<b>a-mak15</b>http://www.blogger.com/profile/10477029375774982659noreply@blogger.com2